If cycling team coaches were like their brethren in American football they would be studying tapes of all the races that have been held on the 17.35km Varese road race circuit this year. What they would find is a pattern that has flowed through the world under-23 men’s and elite women’s championships the past two days, along with last month’s Three Varesine Valleys race and the finale of stage 18 of this year’ s Giro d’Italia. That pattern is one in which breakaways develop early and the peloton has a hard time organizing a chase on a course replete with sharp turns and nagging climbs. And late attacks usually result in a small group fighting out the finale.

It’s a pattern that looks like being repeated this Sunday in the marquee event of the 75th edition of the world road championships, the elite men’s road race over 260.25km through and around the northeast Italian city of Varese.

Based on their performances in UCI-sanctioned races over the past year, 49 countries have representatives in the six-plus-hour race. The top 10 nations have nine-man teams, the next 10 (including the U.S.) have six-man teams, the following 21 (including Canada) have three-man teams, and the last eight countries have just one starter. As four of the smaller countries will not start and others have reduced numbers, Sunday’s peloton looks like being 205 strong.

The teams led by defending champion Paolo Bettini (Italy), three-time champ Oscar Freire (Spain) and 2007 silver medalist Stefan Schumacher (Germany) have the best chance of success, but they can expect fierce opposition from the likes of former champ Tom Boonen (Belgium), Alexandr Kolobnev (Russia), Allan Davis (Australia) and Sylvain Chavanel (France).

Here’s what to look for from the nations likely to be in contention for a medal:

ITALY
Italian national coach Franco Ballerini has made defending champ Bettini and the ever-strong Davide Rebellin his team leaders, while two-time Tour of Lombardy winner Damiano Cunego could be the third Italian in a winning break. The azzuri can also count on lieutenants like Luca Paolini and Alessandro Ballan, and support riders Gabriele Bosisio, Marzio Bruseghin and Matteo Tosatto. The team workers will try to insert themselves into early breakaways to moderate the pace and later set a high tempo to wear down the opposition before the crucial final laps and set up Bettini or Rebellin for the probable sprint finish between a half-dozen riders. And after winning two stages of this month’s Vuelta a España, Bettini is in perfect shape to achieve what the Italians failed to do when the worlds were last in Varese in 1951, and what the Italian U23s just failed to do Friday.

SPAIN
Olympic gold medalist Samuel Sánchez proved in Beijing that besides being a team player he can also be a leader. In fact, at last year’s worlds in Stuttgart, he was already the top-placed Spaniard (in seventh) after Alejandro Valverde and Freire failed to make the winning 11-man break. Besides these three leaders, the Spanish team, as they showed in Beijing, can count on Tour-Giro-Vuelta winner Alberto Contador to work unselfishly for the team, while extra support will probably come from powerful teammates like Benjamin Noval, Luis Sánchez and Juan Manuel Garate. The Spanish have the potential to match the Italians and propel Freire to a fourth rainbow jersey or Valverde to his first gold medal in a career that includes two worlds silvers (2003 and 2005) and a bronze (2006).

GERMANY
Amazingly, in view of their continuing emergence as a top cycling nation, the Germans have taken the elite men’s road race only twice in the event’s 80-year history; and the last time was 32 years ago when national hero Rudi Altig took the title ahead of Tour de France legends Jacques Anquetil and Raymond Poulidor at Germany’s famed Nürburgring circuit. If there is to be a successor to Altig, the strongest candidates are the seasoned Stefan Schumacher and Fabian Wegmann or the evolving Gerald Ciolek. Last year, Schumacher just fell short in his hometown of Stuttgart, taking bronze behind Bettini and Russia’s Kolobnev; while sprinter Erik Zabel placed second the previous year in Salzburg, also beaten in the sprint by Bettini. Normally Jens Voigt would be considered to be another team leader, but though the veteran German won a stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia that finished on the Varese worlds circuit, he decided to end his long 2008 season after winning last week’s Tour of Poland. Depending on how the race evolves, younger German riders like Marcus Burghardt and Christian Knees could also shine on Sunday.

BELGIUM
Although the Varese road course is not built for sprinters, 2005 world champ Tom Boonen is hoping that the good form he built at the Vuelta will put him in position to stay with the best classics riders in the worlds finale and maybe restore some gloss to a season that hasn’t been his best — the recreational drug positive for cocaine use detracted from his Paris-Roubaix win and kept him out of the Tour de France. Should Boonen find the power that has made him one of the strongest climbers on short, punchy hills like those in the Tour of Flanders, he might well take his second rainbow jersey. His trade team colleague Stijn Devolder needs redemption of a different kind after the euphoria of his Flanders victory in the spring was destroyed by a demoralizing debut in the Tour de France. He could be great Sunday after taking a morale-boosting sixth place in Thursday’s time trial. The other Belgian team leader for Sunday’s title race is Philippe Gilbert, who appeared to regain his best form at the Vuelta. As for Belgium’s never-ending supply of domestiques, they can always surprise, as Mario Aerts did with his top-10 finish in the Olympic road race.

RUSSIA
After taking silver in Stuttgart and just missing a medal in Beijing, Kolobnev has shown that he has what it takes to win the world title one year. Maybe he’ll become the first Russian to achieve that feat in Varese; and he could do it if the disparate forces of his team come together and put all their strength behind him. Kolobnev has a great sprint at the end of a long race, especially from a small group. He came up against an unbeatable, inspired Bettini a year ago, while at the Olympics he was overconfident in an uphill finish against the supposedly slower Sánchez and Rebellin.

AUSTRALIA
Without top dog Cadel Evans, the Aussies will ride for stalwarts Robbie McEwen (who just won Paris-Brussels for the fifth time after taking the Hamburg Cyclassics) and Michael Rogers, though the ever-improving Allan Davis and Simon Gerrans might well perform better on this atypical course. Davis, who has a great sprint at the end of a long race, has huge motivation after returning to the big leagues with Belgium’s Quick Step team in early September and winning a Tour of Poland stage, while Gerrans is still riding the euphoria of his Tour de France stage win (which just happened to be in Italy).

FRANCE
One thing about the French is that, despite rarely having a candidate for victory, they always ride well as a team and support their strongest guy on the day. They have shown promise in some major one-day races recently, with Pierrick Fedrigo and Thomas Voeckler winning the past two editions of the UCI ProTour’s GP de Plouay (though neither of these are racing Sunday), while Sylvain Chavanel won two Belgian semi-classics this past spring. Chavanel could surprise at Varese, just as their countryman Anthony Geslin did three years ago at the Madrid worlds in taking the bronze behind Boonen and Valverde.

NETHERLANDS
Though the Dutch are regularly one of the strongest nations in the one-day classics, they have a poor record at the worlds, in which they have taken just one gold, one silver and one bronze over the past 40 years. What’s worse is that the men in orange are still recovering from the loss to retirement of regular contenders Erik Dekker and Michael Boogerd, while their best finisher from last year’s worlds, Thomas Dekker, ended his season in August after splitting with his trade team, Rabobank. For Varese, the vocal Dutch fans and their oom-pah bands will be hoping that youngsters Robert Gesink and Sebastian Langeveld can come though strong, or that veterans Karsten Kroon and Steven De Jongh might pull off a surprise.

NORTH AMERICANS
None of the top U.S. riders will be on the start line Sunday. George Hincapie and Christian Vande Velde decided not to extend their seasons beyond the Tour of Missouri; Chris Horner was not chosen after he criticized USA Cycling for leaving him off the U.S. Olympic team; and Levi Leipheimer decided to end his long season after placing fourth in Thursday’s time trial. With no designated leader on Sunday, there will be a chance for Zabriskie, Danny Pate or Tyler Farrar to spring a surprise. The Canadians have a better chance for a top 10 with Michael Barry, who showed at the Beijing Olympics (and the 2003 worlds) that he can do well in long, single-day races, and is fresh from his solo stage win in Missouri.

OTHERS
Outside of the top nations, the strongest challenges will come from Luxembourg (Andy Schleck might be stronger than brother Fränk), Switzerland (Markus Zberg), Norway (Edwald Boasson Hagen), Sweden (Thomas Lövkvist), Denmark (youngsters Lars Bak, Matti Breschel and Chris Anker Sørensen), Austria (Christian Pfannberger), Great Britain (Steve Cummings), Colombia (Leonardo Duque), Sweden (Thomas Lövkvist) and Ireland (Nicolas Roche). Also look for New Zealand’s Julian Dean. He has been rediscovering his confidence as a team leader with Garmin-Chipotle this season.

With the exciting women’s race Saturday ending with pre-race favorites Nicole Cooke, Marianne Vos and Judith Arndt battling for the medals, worlds week should come to a pulsating climax Sunday with Bettini and Rebellin, Freire and Valverde, and perhaps Kolobnev, Schumacher and the Schlecks fighting for the ultimate rainbow jersey.