There has never been a Tour de France as closely poised as this 2008 edition, less than a week before the finish. The most similar state of the race came in 2003, when prior to the final mountain stage, just 18 seconds separated race leader Lance Armstrong from his two remaining challengers, Jan Ullrich and Alexander Vinokourov. But Armstrong went on to win on the mountaintop finish at Luz-Ardiden (after famously being brought down by the handle of a spectator’s plastic bag), and clinched his fifth consecutive title in the final time trial at Nantes.

Last year, of course, the race appeared to be over, following the last mountain stage, but the withdrawal of Michel Rasmussen put the Tour back in play, and Alberto Contador emerged from the last time trial as the overall winner, just 23 seconds ahead of runner-up Cadel Evans, and 31 seconds before Levi Leipheimer. The closest margin of Tour victory remains the eight seconds that Greg LeMond defeated Laurent Fignon in 1989 after coming from 50 seconds back on the last-day time trial.

Will this coming Saturday’s 53km time trial at St. Amand-Montrond also decide the final yellow jersey of the 95th Tour, or will one of the six men currently within 49 seconds of each other take control of the race in the last two stages in the Alps? Certainly, a rider like Armstrong would make sure he had things wrapped up before the Tour’s last weekend, but none of the riders still in contention at this year’s Tour has the all-around advantages possessed by the seven-time Tour champ: a powerful team, great climbing qualities and superb time trialing skills.

There could not be two more intense days of racing than the ones the peloton faces this Tuesday and Wednesday. Stage 16 from Cuneo in Italy to the small alpine valley town of Jausiers is only 157km long and has just two climbs. But they are monsters, totaling 11,000 feet of climbing in 47km of uphill work.

The Col de la Lombarde, which starts climbing 51km into the stage, is new to the Tour. The road is narrow and twisting with long stretches averaging between 8 and 9 percent, and has pitches as steep as 13 percent in the first 10km. The top half is a little easier, but the whole climb measures 21.5km at a 6.9-percent average. Should the so-far-dominant CSC-Saxo Bank riders apply the pressure on this initial obstacle, they could blow the race apart, and leave a select few to battle it out on the second (and final) mountain, the Cime de la Bonette-Restefond.

This second climb is even longer, with 14.6km of gradual ascent in the valley before even starting the 25.5km mountain pass that averages 6.5 percent and tops out at 9,193 feet (2,802 meters), the highest in France. Although the climb is followed by a 22.5km descent (and just a kilometer of flat roads!), the positions at the summit are unlikely to change much.

Judging by the mountaintop finishes contested so far in this year’s Tour (see summary below), Bernhard Kohl, Carlos Sastre and Denis Menchov have the best chances of success Tuesday, but none of the six contenders has yet to be fully tested. With the yellow jersey on the back of the elder Schleck brother, CSC will be in a defensive role rather than an attacking one, and this could benefit the men with the weakest team support, Cadel Evans, Christian Vande Velde and Kohl.

Also to be taken into account is Wednesday’s much longer stage (210.5km) with a mountaintop finish, which scales the mighty Col du Galibier and Col de la Croix de Fer before even reaching the infamous slopes of L’Alpe d’Huez. I’ll assess that stage in my next column.

Fränk Schleck (1st overall)

Country: Luxembourg.
Age: 28.
Team: CSC-Saxo Bank (all 9 riders still in race).

In the three summit finishes to date at this Tour, the older of the two Schleck brothers placed fourth at Super-Besse, third at Hautacam and ninth at Prato Nevoso (fifth of the race favorites).

Bernhard Kohl (2nd, at 0:07)

Country: Austria.
Age: 26.
Team: Gerolsteiner (all 9 riders)

In the three summit finishes, the Austrian hope placed 26th at Super-Besse (after being held up by the crash of his teammate Stefan Schumacher), fourth at Hautacam and fifth at Prato Nevoso (first of the favorites).

Cadel Evans (3rd, at 0:08)

Country: Australia.
Age: 31.
Team: Silence-Lotto (all 9 riders).

In the three summit finishes, the Aussie favorite placed third at Super-Besse, eighth at Hautacam and 13th at Prato Nevoso (eighth of the favorites).

Denis Menchov (4th, at 0:38)

Country: Russia.
Age: 30.
Team: Rabobank (all 9 riders)

In the three summit finishes, the quietly confident Russian placed ninth at Super-Besse, ninth at Hautacam and eighth at Prato Nevoso (fourth of the favorites).

Christian Vande Velde (5th, at 0:39)

Country: USA.
Age: 32.
Team: Garmin-Chipotle (8 riders, lost Magnus Bäckstedt).

In the three summit finishes, the American placed 19th at Super-Besse (after making an attack that ended in the final kilometer), 10th at Hautacam and 10th at Prato Nevoso (sixth of the favorites).

Carlos Sastre (6th, at 0:49)

Country: Spain.
Age: 33.
Team: CSC-Saxo Bank (all 9 riders)

In the three summit finishes, Spain’s last real podium contender placed eighth at Super-Besse, seventh at Hautacam and sixth at Prato Nevoso (second of the favorites).

There is also a slim chance that the other riders in the top 10, Kim Kirchen (at 2:48), Vladimir Efimkin (at 3:36), Alejandro Valverde (at 4:11) and Samuel Sanchez (at 4:34) could re-enter the picture after Tuesday’s stage. In fact. Valverde said on Monday’s rest day that he’s still aiming for the podium in Paris. If that’s so, then stage 16 and 17 will be even more exciting than we expect.