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It all comes down to the race of truth at the Tour of California

Two-time world time trial champion Fabian Cancellara is staking his hopes on Friday's TT
Two-time world time trial champion Fabian Cancellara is staking his hopes on Friday's TT

Fabian Cancellara was clearly not a happy man. At the end of Wednesday’s decisive stage 3 ride into San Jose, the CSC star threw a water bottle to the ground and climbed into his team car for a ride to his hotel. He wasn’t in the mood for a post-race talk with reporters.

Cancellara’s frustration was understandable. Despite joining forces with some of the world’s best time trialists, the world champion in the discipline had failed to close a 19-second gap to the hard-charging duo of Levi Leipheimer (Astana) and Robert Gesink (Rabobank) in the closing miles of the stage. Although it could have been worse, the CSC man, was clearly angered by the failure of one of the best chase groups ever assembled to keep Leipheimer out of the yellow jersey at the 2008 Amgen Tour of California.

With no change in the top ranks of the overall standings after Thursday’s wet and windy seven-hour ride to San Luis Obispo, Cancellara enters Friday’s 15-mile Solvang time trial 13 seconds behind Leipheimer, with the top 10 on GC loaded with men who have shown great talent against the clock.

Friday’s stage 5 time trial features a route quite similar to that used in last year’s tour, with a couple of small changes that make the course a little more technical this time around. Based on results from the 2007 Tour, Leipheimer comes into Friday’s stage as a favorite. He took the stage with a strong time of 29:40.44, beating CSC’s Jens Voigt by 13 seconds. More significantly, he bested Cancellara by a full 37 seconds.

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But Cancellara was not a contender for the overall title last year and he says he’s in much better form this February than last. It’s a claim supported by a strong ride in Sunday’s 2.1-mile prologue time trial, in which he took the Tour’s first yellow jersey and beat Leipheimer by six seconds.

Sunday’s short, flat prologue, however, may not be a valid comparison to a hilly 15-mile race against the clock in what forecasters say will be less than ideal conditions. Weather predictions for Friday call for shifting winds with gusts up to 20 mph and a 40-percent chance of rain. Both men, of course, will be facing the same conditions, with Cancellara slated to roll out of the start house at 1:51 p.m. (Pacific Time) and Leipheimer following two minutes later.

The battle for the stage win and the overall Amgen title is not limited to the top two men on GC. Gesink, for example, begins the day in third place overall, just 15 seconds out of first. The 20-year-old Rabobank rider didn’t come to the Amgen Tour with the grand tour and world’s time trial experience highlighting the resumes of Leipheimer and Cancellara, but the two-time Dutch junior time trial champion showed real talent on Wednesday, not only with an impressive ride in on the climbs, but on the long flat stretch to the finish in San Jose. Indeed, the tall, lanky Dutchman did the bulk of the work and has to be given much of the credit for fending off the formidable chase group on his heels.

The Slipstream-Chipotle squad also will be fielding some serious talent on Friday, with former Tour de France time trial stage winners David Millar and David Zabriskie sitting 20 and 21 seconds out of first. Millar, however, put his money on Cancellara telling reporters on Thursday that “I think he can do what he wants and pull back 20 seconds and take the lead.”

Millar and Zabriskie will also be joined by teammate Christian Vande Velde, who is currently in 7th place on GC, just 23 seconds behind Leipheimer.

With winds and unpredictable conditions, it wouldn't do anyone well to write off the chances of others in the top ten. CSC’s Gustav Larsson (5th at 0:21), for example, is a former Swedish national time trial champion and finished fourth at the world’s time trial championship in 2004.

Others in the top ten include Astana’s Chris Horner (8th at 0:25), BMC’s Alexandre Moos (9th at 0:29) and Rock Racing’s Victor Hugo Pena (10th at 0:31).

The speculation will end this afternoon in Solvang. The first rider scheduled to leave the starting house is Jelly Belly’s Bryce Mead, who rolls off the line at noon. It will be more than 90 minutes before the major contenders take off, with Pena scheduled to leave at 1:35 and the rest of the top ten starting at two-minute intervals.

Be sure to check in with VeloNews.com for live-up-to-the-minute coverage of what could be the most decisive stage in this year’s Amgen Tour of California.

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